The Scottish question and what it means for Wales

Once I have got the hang of this blogging thing I hope to comment on more topical news rather than writing grand themed essays which might end up being a bit long and boring, but here I go anyway.

As I hope this blog to be on the key issues facing the nations of Britain (and specifically Wales), then this first topic is one of the most pressing and salient issues of the lot. That is the Scottish question, and specifically next years referendum.

I assume most readers of this blog will know the background (many will probably know far more than me), so I wont go into any of that. My view on this question though largely encompasses my views on some of the main themes of this blog: the future of Britain, identity, self determination, idealism vs. pragmatism.

I will start by saying that I believe Scotland has a right to leave the union if it wants to (as does Catalonia have the right to leave Spain in my opinion, I know that it may not be strictly constitutional), and that it is a matter for Scotland to decide on its own. I think the franchise that has been worked out is about as fair as it is going to get (essentially people living in Scotland, not ex-pat Scots). I have read the arguments that the rest of the UK should have a vote as it affects them, but I'm not convinced. It seems to me that the kind of people that make this argument would think it ridiculous if someone were to suggest that all member states of the EU should also vote if the UK were to have a vote on leaving. The borders of political units have changed over time and will continue to shift in the future. If leaders at the centre of the state cannot convince people in other parts of the state that it is worth staying in a union then it is their fault, not the fault of the people further away.

This does not mean that it should be easy, and if a state has a written constitution they can decide to add certain locks into the system of secession. But they must allow for the democratic will of a clearly established nation for independence.

The second point I want to make is that I agree with the view, which most serious commentators have finally acknowledged, that Scotland could be a successful independent country should some wise decisions be made during the independence process and post independence early years. Scotland pays its way currently, having a GDP figure of roughly the UK average before oil and gas is taken into account. Currently under the Barnett formula they receive roughly 14% above the UK average of public spending per head, more than Wales which is 13% above the UK average (in Northern Ireland its 20% above). This is more than they raise from normal taxation, but it is also before oil and gas is taken into account which largely makes up for the overspend in Scotland compared to the other parts of the UK, even if it can fluctuate a bit. So even though it is hard to predict accurately, it looks like Scotland could pay its way and retain a public sector of a similar standard to the one it currently enjoys. This little info-graphic on the BBC website is quite nice and provides some more figures: Scotland in numbers.

This brings me on to Wales. There are two questions that this makes me ponder: what an independent Scotland means for Wales? And whether we in Wales could go for independence ourselves? Two big questions which probably need a much more thorough answer than the ones I am about to give. I will try and flesh it out a bit in future posts, but here is a start.

In one respect it doesn't mean that much to Wales. If Scotland chose to go for independence most people in Wales wouldn't notice a dramatic change to their lives apart from possible changes to things such as the flag and maybe the name of the country (also Westminster politics may move very slightly to the right as Scottish Labour MPs are removed from the equation, which is different to the Conservative party dominance some people claim). Scottish independence might even be an interesting experiment that we could learn something from. The one fear I may have once had I am far less worried about these days. That is the threat to the devolution project. I am convinced that the National Assembly is here to stay, and that it has put down strong roots, it cant be simply abolished if the powers that be in Westminster decided after a Yes vote in Scotland that this devolution thing was too dangerous. The Welsh people have accepted devolution. This has been convincingly argued in Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully's 2012 book "Wales Says Yes: Devolution and the 2011 referendum".

Following on from this point is an idea I will discuss in future posts, which is that we need to be more critical in Wales, particularly of the government. There was a fear in the early years of devolution, and especially as the Assembly was established as a corporate body, that to criticise it was to criticise devolution. Therefore commentators would find success stories amongst the failure and highlight them to show that the project was on course. I understand why this was the case, the early years of devolution following the narrow yes vote were nervous years. And some credit should be given to Labour (and Rhodri Morgan) for keeping the devolution/nation building project on track. Following the separation of government and legislature in 2006 and the second referendum in 2011 we can now be (and need to be) far more constructively critical.

Now back to the main point. I think there would be some negative and some positive implications for Wales whichever way the Scottish vote goes. Rhodri Morgan recently (and in his usual style) entered the debate and insulted three (possibly four) countries in the process by calling the celtic countries "fleas" on Englands "elephant". He described how the small fleas need to work together to get the elephants attention.

In typical style he forgot human nature (or should that be flea nature?), that fleas don't generally tend to work together and that even if they did it wouldn't make much difference to the elephant. Maybe a shoal of fish and a shark might be a better analogy? Anyway, enough animal analogies. The point is that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland only work together if it is in all their national interests and when they do does it really achieve that much if they are so small anyway? I'm not sure.

While I'm at it, Scotland is the biggest flea so they are more likely to get their way currently. Would Wales be taken more seriously as the biggest player in these negotiations post Scottish independence? The Barnett formula is one area where Scottish interests are more important to the UK then Welsh interests. I don't know if all this is really the case, but when you think about it Rhodri's argument is a bit thin. It at least seems a bit naive to suggest that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland's interests will always coincide and be different to England's, they may sometimes clash (as over the Barnett formula).

After saying that, in many ways it would seem a shame for Scotland to leave the union, reasons which are often cited: history and tradition; the social union; the difficulty and uncertainty of independence. All valid arguments, but not enough to counter the key arguments made in favour of Scottish independence: self determination and the prospect of building the type of country that most Scots would like to see (as well as a different view of history). It seems to me that it largely comes down to a personal choice that is not strictly rational, and is related to a persons sense of identity. But that does not mean that all the other arguments are unimportant, of course people need to know what they are getting themselves into by voting one way or the other.

So what should we in Wales do? It seems reasonable to me that we can involve ourselves in the debate, as it does affect us, while at the same time acknowledging that it is largely a matter for Scotland. Our government should also be planning for all potential outcomes to maximise the benefits of either result for Wales. Whether that is renegotiating a stronger position in what is left of the United Kingdom (the Rump-UK as it is somewhat mischievously called), including a new funding settlement which all parties have now acknowledged under-funds Wales, but won't change because of how it would play in Scotland. Or in the more likely (according to the polls) scenario in which Scotland votes no, we need to look at how the Coalition governments offer of more devolution for Scotland even if it votes no will relate to Wales. There may still be scope for Barnett reform in this scenario. Either way this is a pretty good opportunity for Wales to nudge its way into the debate if done with some skill.

It is sometimes noted that Wales has no decent cards up its sleeve to play in these sort of cases (and it might have some truth in it), but it sounds a bit defeatist to me. We need to learn from the Scots and either play the cards we have got better or get some new cards. It is not all about resources, which it is sometimes claimed Wales lacks, sometimes resources can hinder economic progress as this recent article about the rise of Eastern Europe discusses.

So what about Welsh independence? Is that where our priorities should be? On an emotional level I can see why this appeals, but for now I would have to say no. Wales is not Scotland and we are in a very different situation in a number of ways. The most important being the difference in the amount of wealth we generate through taxes that could pay for a similar level of public services compared to what we currently have. Unfortunately, better management of public services or new policies will not get us out of this hole, it is too deep. I have no problems putting some of the blame on the rule of Westminster, under this system we are peripheral to power and it makes sense (from a Westminster centric point of view) that not as much money has been put back into mountainous, sparsely populated and distant Wales. This was particularly tragic when in the past we contributed so much wealth to Britain and received less back in terms of infrastructure than was merited. But that was some time ago and some of the blame must also be put on the party which has dominated in Wales for almost a century (since 1922) and represents the poorest areas of the country. Indeed, I often wonder whether these areas vote Labour because they are poor, or whether its the other way around, that those areas are poor because they vote Labour?

But before we can figure out where we need to go, we need to recognise where we are, and the sad truth is that we could not afford independence at the current time, anyone who doubts this claim should read the Holtham commission report which highlights Wales' horrible fiscal deficit. That is unless you were to argue for an independent Wales from a radical small c conservative point of view in which radically cutting the state and public services was part of the project. But seeing as no-one is then it seems that this is a moot point for now.

Of course there is a strong case for some sort of British union, which I would advocate, based on our largely shared history and institutions, and the fact that we share an island and language. It could include sovereign/independent states voluntarily forming some sort of confederation (would it be too much to suggest that one day even a united Ireland could join this confederation?). But the game for nationalists and unionists in Wales at the moment should be (paradoxically) the same: to make Wales a more prosperous and self confident country under devolution. For one side it is so that Wales at least could afford to leave the union in the future if it were in the national interest, for the others it is to show that being part of Britain is worth the sacrifice of complete autonomy.

In any case (and as this post is becoming a bit on the long side), as is often stated independence for independence sake is not (or at least should not be) the point. I would be happy with a wealthy, fair, free, confident and respected Wales whether it was as part of Britain or as an independent state. Lets all, at least, agree on that!


*As it is Christmas tomorrow tomorrow can I wish anyone who has read this blog post a Nadolig Llawen/Merry Christmas!

Mission Statement

The country which I love is failing.

It is an ancient country that has survived against the odds, and still retains a strong sense of itself. It is also a modern country that has recently embarked on a project of nation building and democratic self determination. It is both an engaging opportunity and a terrifying responsibility. It is a project I have followed for perhaps the last eight years, and it is largely the reason I have decided to write this blog.

The country is Wales (or Cymru in our old Welsh tongue), a small country to be found in the west of the island of Britain. It is a country with a rich history, which has in its own way shaped the history of the world (something I hope to explore a bit more in my future blog posts). But its history is largely ignored and under appreciated by many of its own people and many more of the people of the island which it shares. If the country is known by people outside of the island of Britain then it is largely as a strange mountainous land, a land of song, miners, castles and rugby players. It is also a relatively poor country that, we have been convinced, is a country with a radical and left wing disposition.

I want to write this blog to in some small way contribute to the current debates about the future of Wales, and the wider world. I am interested in a number of areas which this blog will aim to comment, including: history, philosophy, economics, science and above all politics, with a focus on Wales and Britain. I am an expert in none of these areas, but I believe in the democratic ideal of a citizenry which tries to educate itself and therefore offer challenging comment on the state of things. As Dewi Sant (Saint David) said "do the little things", it is a phrase I try to remind myself of as often as I can.

If anybody should choose to read this blog, then I hope to provoke thoughts and ideas above all else, and then to learn from any comments I receive and any debates I engage in. I have modified my ideas on a number of issues through past debates with friends and family, and by following thoughts through to their logical conclusion I have reached some uncomfortable truths. The idea of writing this blog is not to find easy answers, so I hope to submit myself to some more challenging debate.

Now to get back to the point of all of this.

Following Welsh politics can be a painful interest, but it is required work for Welsh patriots, of which I count myself one. This is the only political position (if it is one) I will say for now that I hold, for I am not currently a member of any political party and when in the past I have tried finding a position to describe my political views I have struggled to settle on any that satisfy me. One qualifying remark however, I also consider myself British, and as I consider patriotism a good thing (if not taken to extremes), then I am also a British patriot. I do not think they are mutually exclusive.

In the current circumstances though Wales needs patriots more than Britain, and therefore my focus in this blog will be on Wales. (I am also fascinated by the rest of the world, as all good patriots should be. So will also comment on things other than Welsh and British politics.)

In 1997 the people of Wales voted in favour of a National Assembly (very narrowly) and therefore a degree of political autonomy. The National Assembly began its work in 1999, and for all the years since then (14 years), the Welsh Government and Welsh politics has been dominated by one party, the Welsh Labour Party. It is my contention that they have failed Wales, and are continuing to fail us. In fact recent polls suggest that Labour will run Wales for the foreseeable future, suggesting a worrying prospect of a one party state. They have cemented their position through cleverly exploiting Welsh history and Welsh patriotism to make themselves the "party of Wales". They have made their brand of unreconstructed socialism look as though it is the "Welsh way". The truth is that Wales, like all other countries is a diverse place full of differing and legitimate ideas. The fact that most Welsh people don't really follow Welsh media (what there is of it anyway) suits the Labour party. As the Welsh public can ignore their failures and instead their anger can be vented on the evil Tories at Westminster who are far more likely to appear on their TV screens and in their newspapers.

However, my argument is that we have no one else to blame but our selves for this situation. Anyone who maintains that Wales is seriously oppressed by London/England/the Tories either has never seen real oppression or is spreading propaganda. The past is past and historic injustices should not fester in our hearts. There is fault, no doubt, that can be levelled at Westminster, but it is largely that Wales is ignored or not even considered. We are not going to change this situation just by complaining. We need firstly self confidence and to ditch any ideas of victim-hood, and secondly to assert our selves in Britain and the world in a positive way and by learning from others success (and that includes England).

I think truth is the most important thing we can strive for, and hopefully come somewhere near to through debate. So in this vain, the first thing to say is that I do believe that most politicians in Wales, from all parties, have good intentions. This may not be true (I can not make windows into peoples minds), but what is clear is that there is certainly a number of incompetent politicians in Wales. Evidence for this can be found in the state of education, health and the economy of Wales, after all a politicians primary job is to improve the lives of their constituents and their country. A lack of competition in certain constituencies is, I'm sure, part of the problem here.

We come out bottom on so many measures which compare us with other parts of the UK that something must be going wrong. In any other country the figures which we regularly hear about would be a national emergency, yet we have become so used to them we have become complacent. When the new PISA figures for Wales were released recently and showed that we were continuing to slip behind other countries, we heard Labour talking about new systems being put into place and a new emphasis on this and that, as if they had only just come to power, not been in charge of education for 14 years. It might be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The same is true of the Welsh economy, where we sit somewhere around 70-75% of the UK average in terms of GVA or GDP. But our government continue to hamper the growth of businesses in Wales through poor leadership and decisions, increased regulation or by focusing their resources on projects that in the long run wont create sustainable wealth creating jobs.

When people talk of real change and new thinking they generally don't really mean it, they go straight back to thinking what they previously thought, maybe with a slight tinkering about the edges. As Einstein famously said the definition of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result". We need to change our political and ideological culture, learn from others who have succeeded and be prepared to change our minds. Wales cannot wait for much longer for us to go through this process.