The Wales We Need

In February the Welsh Government launched its “The Wales We Want” initiative, a national conversation about the kind of Wales we would like to see in the future. As with many of these sort of government initiatives it is a laudable idea that sadly will probably not engage many beyond the usual suspects. Most of who are likely to have ideas that are not that reflective of the majority of people in Wales, and therefore it will be money better spent elsewhere. I hope I am wrong. 

As one of those people who take part in these sort of things (I attended and took part in a number of All Wales Convention events and took part in the “Yes for Wales” campaign), I would like to give my view on this, which I hope will provide a bit of a different view to some of the others you may read.

I largely think these initiatives are a waste of time and money because unlike most people I think that most of us, from all political parties in Wales, pressure groups etc want the same things. The difference is we all have different ideas on how to get there, these differences are then spun by politicians and others to show how evil their opponents are and to pretend that they want something vastly different to them.

I think it is safe to say that most rational people in Wales want to see a Wales that is wealthy, fair, peaceful, healthy, well educated, confident and cultured. But how do we get there? That is where the real arguments should be.

Having thought about this for quite some time, it is increasingly clear to me that we need to completely change our political/ideological culture and mindset as a nation. This will not be easy, will be painful, and may well be impossible. But being an optimist, I think it could be done.

Having long and lazily thought of myself as a left winger, I no longer do. Not because I don’t believe in many of the same things, I do, I have just realised it is far more complicated than a simple left and right scale can suggest. However, it does give a rough idea to some thoughts, so I will continue to use the term for ease of explanation.

I always thought that Wales was a radical and left wing country, and while I think an argument could be made that Wales is slightly more left wing (whatever that really means) than the other countries of the UK, I certainly don’t think we are radical. In fact in our political decisions we are amazingly conservative, voting in large measure for the same party for almost 100 years (since 1922 Labour has been the most popular party in Wales), during which time that party and ideology has made us increasingly poor.

Sadly, there is little hope on the immediate horizon, as the three alternative parties of government in Wales do not offer what I think we need. Plaid are trying to outflank Labour on the left, offering more of the same ideology which has made and kept many parts of Wales poor, the Conservatives are a toxic brand in Wales following too many years of not taking our country seriously enough, and the Lib Dems are somewhere in between Plaid and Labour.

If these parties could put their differences to the side and form a coalition based on some of the things they agree on (there are some things) then it might just stand a chance of ousting Labour from government and finally give Wales the mature multi party democracy it needs. This currently seems unlikely, but a more centrist Plaid Cymru would be the key. The only alternative I can see to this scenario is a completely new pragmatic and patriotic Welsh party that could displace Plaid and the Conservatives as the real alternative to Labour. It would garner support from both of those parties, Welsh patriots who want more autonomy, but are concerned about following Labours left wing policies which are damaging our economy and services, and the small c-conservative minded people of much of rural Wales who want to remain part of Britain, but are happy for Wales to have much more autonomy. Most importantly it would give confidence and voice to those who do now and always have seen that you can be a Welsh patriot and worry that some left wing dogma is making Wales poorer, and that being part of the UK doesn't mean we cant be a proud and independent minded nation.

The point behind this is that those who most vehemently want Wales to be an independent country (something I would possibly support in the right circumstances) deny one of the things which makes us a country – a diverse landscape of opinions. Wales is not a “left wing” country, but a country of people with lots of different opinions. It is part of the Labour history of Wales we have been sold, which is only part of the story of our nation.

I hesitate to think of myself as right wing or even centre right. But some of the things I agree with (largely on economic issues and the inability of government to solve many problems) would be labelled as such, so I may as well accept them.

So to get back to some of the things I would like to see in Wales in the future, well firstly it would be a real alternative to Labour and a recognition and support for alternative views which some may label right wing ideas. After all, those who often look to other countries such as Catalonia or the Basque Country for inspiration don’t often note that they have strong centre right or centrist parties which have dominated in those nations for years. Catalonia is now one of the richest areas of Spain and like Scotland can credibly threaten secession.

To improve the Welsh economy and to increase our influence in the UK and beyond, two things will have to happen. These are a larger Welsh population and a stronger economy, both of which go hand in hand to some extent. This population growth will need to be focused on our big cities and towns as cities and city regions are increasingly recognised as the drivers of economic growth (I should note here that I am from rural Wales). This means that the population growth would also be less of a threat to the Welsh language, being based in our cities. So Cardiff, Newport and Swansea in the south and Wrecsam in the north

Could Cardiff truly become one of the worlds great cities with a population measured in millions?

(which should be recognised as a city), would be the focus of this growth. Wales' population is growing, and with Scotland's population shrinking we need to aim to catch up with them both in terms of our population and our economy. We might just be surprised how quickly the UK government starts to take more notice of us for a change. This will take time, but if you look at other countries around the world and how quickly they have changed over relatively short periods with a proactive and rational government then I think it is possible in Wales in the next 10 to 20 years.

Talking about Scotland, it is ironic that rebellious Scots who are causing the UK problems with their independence referendum are rewarded, while loyal Wales is punished. It highlights the realpolitik nature of the UK highlighted in today's article by Richard Wyn Jones. We also need more Welsh people in key positions in the UK government exerting their influence in favour of Wales, much like the Scots have done in the past, and continue to do. For this reason, I am always sceptical of any arguments in favour of reducing Wales' influence in Westminster, either by scrapping the Welsh Office or reducing the number of MPs. It may make sense from a constitutional point of view, but while the constitution is still messy, to Wales' disadvantage, I think we should retain as much influence as we can. Independence wont come for some time, if at all, so lets not cut off our nose to spite our face.

We need to recognise that equality in all areas is both not possible and not desirable, and is a term I hear too many Welsh politicians throwing around without much thought. Yes to equality before the law and equality of opportunity, no to equality of outcome. People are not all equally skilled, hard working or willing to take risks. We need to reward those who create jobs and bring more wealth to the Welsh economy (and therefore more taxes to pay for services). This is part of the changing of culture that I mentioned earlier, and something which some may find painful or offensive. But it doesn't mean we stop being compassionate, or having a deep love of community. If we really loved our Welsh communities we would do whatever it means to ensure they survive, that there are jobs there for local people and young people so that they can stay there and make a good life for themselves in thriving communities. The key to saving the Welsh language is also saving the Welsh economy. We need to be more intelligent with our policies.

Why is selection such a dirty word in Wales?

Another key area where our political culture holds us in chains is education. The current school system seems more geared towards statist solutions and social engineering than it does to the needs of teaching children and nurturing academic talent in the brightest. Only people with a lot of money can afford to send their kids to a really good school by moving into the right catchment area. This may go some way towards our politicians idea of equality of outcome as potentially very bright kids get stuck in poor schools and never achieve their potential, but it is not the equality of opportunity I would like to see. We need to give our academically brightest students a chance to flourish in whichever areas they have a passion for (through the medium of either of Wales' languages). It is for this reason that I think we should take the Welsh Conservatives idea about reviving grammar schools more seriously. If done well it could really be the key to making a better Wales for future generations. It is at least worth more serious consideration.

There are some in each of the three opposition parties who are willing to step outside their party political/ideological boxes and suggest ideas that may help Wales, even though they know they will face mockery from some quarters. For example Adam Price's suggestion that if Wales had the power to control all the income tax rates separately we should reduce the top rate tax was unsurprisingly howled down by some as helping the rich. Maybe so, but it would increase the amount of taxes paid in Wales, increasing the amount available to pay for the services that those same people claim they care about. Other sensible tax policies could also help stimulate the Welsh economy and go some way towards us catching up with the rest of the UK and paying our own way.

Make no mistake, Wales is in a dire situation, and we need some bold thinking to get us out of this hole, but anyone who suggests anything slightly contradicting Welsh Labours leftist and statist orthodoxy is called a Tory and therefore another good idea is thrown on the scrap heap.

These are just a couple of suggestions for what I think we need in Wales if we are going to have a better future. They may prove unpopular, but if you are like me then you will prefer the blogs/articles that provoke thought rather than just making bland statements that everyone can agree with but provide no real challenge.

There are some good thinkers in all the parties and from all parts of Welsh life who are willing to really think differently for Wales. Politicians like Adam Price, David Melding and recently Ann Clwyd, economists like Gerald Holtham, Eurfyl ap Gwilym and Dylan Jones-Evans, academics like Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully, business people such as Terry Matthews, even TV personalities like Griff Rhys Jones, have all said something which may go against what people want to hear but will at least provoke thought and at best suggest a path out of our current rut.

Maybe if they were to start up the new party I suggested earlier we could make a start on building the Wales we need.

Local governance in Wales

I promised at the end of my last blog post some comments on the (now not so recent) Williams Commission report. So here are a few comments:

I agree with what most commentators in Wales have stated for some time now, that there are too many councils in Wales. The size of population they are servicing and duplication of job roles for nearby areas this implies is not sustainable (although I do accept the rurality and therefore geographical size of some councils need to be taken into account). It has been noted previously that Wales has too many politicians in the wrong places, which is an important point. There are 1264 councillors in Wales, that is a paid councillor (earning over £13,000) for roughly every 1830 people in Wales, paid for by the already financially struggling people of Wales. That is more than Scotland, which has less councillors (1222) for a bigger population (5.2 million), to take just one example. The picture on the right, taken from the report, is one suggestion on how councils could be merged.

I'd much rather have 20 more Assembly Members in the National Assembly holding the over powerful Welsh Government to account than all these extra councillors (there are more councillors in most of Wales' council chambers than there are in our National Assembly). They are needed much more in the Assembly where the key decisions which affect Wales are increasingly made. As Professor Richard Wyn Jones has commented it is "incongruous, inconsistent and irrational".

There is a corollary to this though, and that is if we do merge some of the councils and therefore reduce the number of councillors we should give the new larger councils more responsibility by handing powers down to them from the National Assembly. Devolution should not stop in Cardiff Bay, and we should learn the lessons of Westminster rule, that concentrating power in one place has disadvantages. On this I agree with the Welsh Liberal Democrats.

I also agree with a number of suggestions I have seen that the new councils should be voted for via some form of proportional representation, to better reflect the public's choices in terms of local service delivery. But with Labour being the main beneficiaries of the first past the post system of election at local council level in Wales I fear this is unlikely to happen.

With all that said, council reorganisation itself is no answer to the key questions of good service delivery, and the council merger side of the Williams commission report will probably have a limited impact in this area. Although there is some evidence that larger councils provide better services this is far from a proven fact, and it is also important that the new councils represent areas that have enough in common to consider themselves a distinct geographical entity (the names of the councils will be important here). There is however much more in the Williams Commission report than just a plan for council mergers, and there are some good ideas in there besides the headline grabbing council merger proposals. It would be a tragic missed opportunity if it is just bigger councils we end up with and some of the other useful suggestions are ignored.

There is also the issue of a lack of democratic engagement at the local level, especially with regards to town and community councils which play an important role in the communities of Wales. The fact that nearly half of Wales' community council seats were uncontested is very worrying from a democratic perspective. Perhaps those prospective councillors that will lose out at the county council level following a reduction in Wales' councils could help fill the gap here?

The fundamental issue at the heart of all this is the question of governance, and how much of it we need, as well as how much we should be paying for it. I am a small state sort of person at heart and generally believe that people should be given plenty of freedom to make their own decisions in life and that the state should stay largely out of the way. This means that it doesn't take excessive amounts of tax from people, at all income levels, and that with more money in their pockets people will choose to spend money on those things which they see as valuable or vital (I'm not talking here about the obviously necessary services such as rubbish collection or education, which councils will always need to organise). Some services that Welsh councils currently fund will survive or fall based on how much local people value them. This option also has the bonus of being a more democratic option and being good for the economy.

With all this comes more responsibility for each person in Wales, something which Labour seems to be trying to discourage, but a general culture change will be as difficult as it is necessary.

Wales is clearly over-governed, we have at least five levels of governance from the EU down to town and community councils and with a Welsh civil service roughly the same size as the Scottish civil service, despite a smaller population and less devolved functions in Wales. But it is not necessarily the number of layers which is a problem but how much power each has and what they are all trying to do. I tend to think that the two layers that should have the most power are the Welsh and local council levels, with much less power at the UK and European levels, although remaining part of both unions.

So to get back to the original point of all this. Firstly; we cant afford 22 local councils in Wales (and despite what some have argued that it wont save money, I am pretty convinced there will be savings in the long term if the changes are managed well). Secondly; we should take this opportunity devolve more power to the local level and to think about how services are delivered. Thirdly; we should embrace the idea that government, or the state, cant do everything for us. Fourthly; vested interests will always complain when changes could mean less funding for their projects, but we should trust people to vote with their wallets and their time. I believe that Wales is the sort of country where we could have an engaged and pragmatic civic culture if we are just given the chance.

Why the West rules and the lessons of history

Perhaps just before Christmas was not the best time to start writing a blog, as I have been too busy to write much since I started this blog about a month ago (2 posts a month being a shameful output). But better to get started than to never start at all I suppose!

Rather than writing predictions for the year ahead or anything like that I thought I'd write something about a book that I have been reading over the holiday period, and some thoughts it has provoked.

It is a fascinating book that I would thoroughly recommend that you read, which I have only just finished today. The book is called "Why the West Rules - For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future." and was written by Ian Morris (Professor in Classics and History at Stanford University) and published in 2010.

The book is fascinating in a number of ways, as it attempts to go back into ancient history and trace the rise of early human civilizations through to the present day. The book focuses on the two distinct zones of development which gave rise to the Western core (starting in the Hilly Flanks in the modern day Middle East before moving westward through the Mediterranean to North West Europe and then to North America) and the Eastern core which has moved less but expanded almost as much from central China.

It shows how social development (based on a number of measures) has gone upwards and downwards in history. An obvious example for Europe being the period following the collapse of the (Western) Roman empire and the subsequent fall in social development in most of Europe until the days of the industrial revolution in Britain in the 18th Century. During much of this long period the East led the world in social development, and could be said to have ruled the world.

The book discusses some of the key drivers of social development, summarised quite worryingly as fear, laziness and greed. It is also interesting to note some of the theories that are discussed in the book, such as the advantages of backwardness, and how regions which were once peripheries become dominant over time by learning from their more socially advanced neighbours and adapting the best bits to their own cultures. This being how north west Europe slowly became the dominant part of the European continent which had previously been dominated by the Mediterranean area.

It is also interesting to see how all the great empires of history eventually crumbled when they were stretched too thin and their weaknesses were exploited by innovative neighbours. It shows quite clearly that geography is (or maybe that should be was) the main shaper of human history, and that the West took an early lead in social development due to the Hilly Flanks being endowed with a larger range of domestic-able plants and animals than the worlds other early civilisations.

While reading the book it is easy to make comparisons between the big empires of history and more modern and smaller units of political power, and I think there are a number of lessons for countries like Wales and Britain that could be learnt from the book. They would take quite a bit of explaining, and you may draw your own conclusions so I would recommend that you read the book if you want to know what I'm getting at. But I think it is safe to say that countries like Wales (or Britain) have both suffered because of their geography and been saved by it. For example Wales was largely protected from Anglo-Saxon and then Norman advance because of its largely mountainous landscape, it has also suffered more recently as it made connecting much of Wales with itself a more difficult task. Britain in a similar but opposite way, suffered early on from being an island, only for that problem to later on become an advantage, protecting the island from outside aggression and forcing it to become a maritime power. Geography shapes development, and then development shapes geography.

The final part of the book looks to the future and whether the 21st century will be the century when world power shifts from its current location in the United States to the East (largely focused in China, at least to start). It also asks some new questions such as whether the concepts of East and West will exist in the future before straying into the realms of science fiction, discussing how robotics, nanotechnology, genetic science and other new technologies will completely revolutionise social development. There is also a warning that the next 40 years could be the most important years in human history, where we will either face an ever accelerating level of social development or an apocalyptic end of days scenario which the author calls Nightfall after the Isaac Asimov short story. We live in interesting times.

One lesson that I think is relevant at the beginning of a new year being how often we fail to learn the lessons of history and how often we make the same mistakes. But saying that, it also shows how difficult it is to make good decisions in any case, as with the long view of history it is easy to see how decisions that at the time seemed good, but had terrible long term consequences. Let us hope we muddle on through the 21st century with a bit of luck.

If you want to understand why the world is the way it is, why certain countries are the way they are, if you want to have a good grasp of modern geopolitics or you want to see what the future may hold then I think this is a book you should read.



*I hope to comment shortly on the Williams Commission Report which has recently been released and how I think it will effect public services in Wales. Thereby keeping my earlier promise to comment on topical news as well as other things.

The Scottish question and what it means for Wales

Once I have got the hang of this blogging thing I hope to comment on more topical news rather than writing grand themed essays which might end up being a bit long and boring, but here I go anyway.

As I hope this blog to be on the key issues facing the nations of Britain (and specifically Wales), then this first topic is one of the most pressing and salient issues of the lot. That is the Scottish question, and specifically next years referendum.

I assume most readers of this blog will know the background (many will probably know far more than me), so I wont go into any of that. My view on this question though largely encompasses my views on some of the main themes of this blog: the future of Britain, identity, self determination, idealism vs. pragmatism.

I will start by saying that I believe Scotland has a right to leave the union if it wants to (as does Catalonia have the right to leave Spain in my opinion, I know that it may not be strictly constitutional), and that it is a matter for Scotland to decide on its own. I think the franchise that has been worked out is about as fair as it is going to get (essentially people living in Scotland, not ex-pat Scots). I have read the arguments that the rest of the UK should have a vote as it affects them, but I'm not convinced. It seems to me that the kind of people that make this argument would think it ridiculous if someone were to suggest that all member states of the EU should also vote if the UK were to have a vote on leaving. The borders of political units have changed over time and will continue to shift in the future. If leaders at the centre of the state cannot convince people in other parts of the state that it is worth staying in a union then it is their fault, not the fault of the people further away.

This does not mean that it should be easy, and if a state has a written constitution they can decide to add certain locks into the system of secession. But they must allow for the democratic will of a clearly established nation for independence.

The second point I want to make is that I agree with the view, which most serious commentators have finally acknowledged, that Scotland could be a successful independent country should some wise decisions be made during the independence process and post independence early years. Scotland pays its way currently, having a GDP figure of roughly the UK average before oil and gas is taken into account. Currently under the Barnett formula they receive roughly 14% above the UK average of public spending per head, more than Wales which is 13% above the UK average (in Northern Ireland its 20% above). This is more than they raise from normal taxation, but it is also before oil and gas is taken into account which largely makes up for the overspend in Scotland compared to the other parts of the UK, even if it can fluctuate a bit. So even though it is hard to predict accurately, it looks like Scotland could pay its way and retain a public sector of a similar standard to the one it currently enjoys. This little info-graphic on the BBC website is quite nice and provides some more figures: Scotland in numbers.

This brings me on to Wales. There are two questions that this makes me ponder: what an independent Scotland means for Wales? And whether we in Wales could go for independence ourselves? Two big questions which probably need a much more thorough answer than the ones I am about to give. I will try and flesh it out a bit in future posts, but here is a start.

In one respect it doesn't mean that much to Wales. If Scotland chose to go for independence most people in Wales wouldn't notice a dramatic change to their lives apart from possible changes to things such as the flag and maybe the name of the country (also Westminster politics may move very slightly to the right as Scottish Labour MPs are removed from the equation, which is different to the Conservative party dominance some people claim). Scottish independence might even be an interesting experiment that we could learn something from. The one fear I may have once had I am far less worried about these days. That is the threat to the devolution project. I am convinced that the National Assembly is here to stay, and that it has put down strong roots, it cant be simply abolished if the powers that be in Westminster decided after a Yes vote in Scotland that this devolution thing was too dangerous. The Welsh people have accepted devolution. This has been convincingly argued in Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully's 2012 book "Wales Says Yes: Devolution and the 2011 referendum".

Following on from this point is an idea I will discuss in future posts, which is that we need to be more critical in Wales, particularly of the government. There was a fear in the early years of devolution, and especially as the Assembly was established as a corporate body, that to criticise it was to criticise devolution. Therefore commentators would find success stories amongst the failure and highlight them to show that the project was on course. I understand why this was the case, the early years of devolution following the narrow yes vote were nervous years. And some credit should be given to Labour (and Rhodri Morgan) for keeping the devolution/nation building project on track. Following the separation of government and legislature in 2006 and the second referendum in 2011 we can now be (and need to be) far more constructively critical.

Now back to the main point. I think there would be some negative and some positive implications for Wales whichever way the Scottish vote goes. Rhodri Morgan recently (and in his usual style) entered the debate and insulted three (possibly four) countries in the process by calling the celtic countries "fleas" on Englands "elephant". He described how the small fleas need to work together to get the elephants attention.

In typical style he forgot human nature (or should that be flea nature?), that fleas don't generally tend to work together and that even if they did it wouldn't make much difference to the elephant. Maybe a shoal of fish and a shark might be a better analogy? Anyway, enough animal analogies. The point is that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland only work together if it is in all their national interests and when they do does it really achieve that much if they are so small anyway? I'm not sure.

While I'm at it, Scotland is the biggest flea so they are more likely to get their way currently. Would Wales be taken more seriously as the biggest player in these negotiations post Scottish independence? The Barnett formula is one area where Scottish interests are more important to the UK then Welsh interests. I don't know if all this is really the case, but when you think about it Rhodri's argument is a bit thin. It at least seems a bit naive to suggest that Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland's interests will always coincide and be different to England's, they may sometimes clash (as over the Barnett formula).

After saying that, in many ways it would seem a shame for Scotland to leave the union, reasons which are often cited: history and tradition; the social union; the difficulty and uncertainty of independence. All valid arguments, but not enough to counter the key arguments made in favour of Scottish independence: self determination and the prospect of building the type of country that most Scots would like to see (as well as a different view of history). It seems to me that it largely comes down to a personal choice that is not strictly rational, and is related to a persons sense of identity. But that does not mean that all the other arguments are unimportant, of course people need to know what they are getting themselves into by voting one way or the other.

So what should we in Wales do? It seems reasonable to me that we can involve ourselves in the debate, as it does affect us, while at the same time acknowledging that it is largely a matter for Scotland. Our government should also be planning for all potential outcomes to maximise the benefits of either result for Wales. Whether that is renegotiating a stronger position in what is left of the United Kingdom (the Rump-UK as it is somewhat mischievously called), including a new funding settlement which all parties have now acknowledged under-funds Wales, but won't change because of how it would play in Scotland. Or in the more likely (according to the polls) scenario in which Scotland votes no, we need to look at how the Coalition governments offer of more devolution for Scotland even if it votes no will relate to Wales. There may still be scope for Barnett reform in this scenario. Either way this is a pretty good opportunity for Wales to nudge its way into the debate if done with some skill.

It is sometimes noted that Wales has no decent cards up its sleeve to play in these sort of cases (and it might have some truth in it), but it sounds a bit defeatist to me. We need to learn from the Scots and either play the cards we have got better or get some new cards. It is not all about resources, which it is sometimes claimed Wales lacks, sometimes resources can hinder economic progress as this recent article about the rise of Eastern Europe discusses.

So what about Welsh independence? Is that where our priorities should be? On an emotional level I can see why this appeals, but for now I would have to say no. Wales is not Scotland and we are in a very different situation in a number of ways. The most important being the difference in the amount of wealth we generate through taxes that could pay for a similar level of public services compared to what we currently have. Unfortunately, better management of public services or new policies will not get us out of this hole, it is too deep. I have no problems putting some of the blame on the rule of Westminster, under this system we are peripheral to power and it makes sense (from a Westminster centric point of view) that not as much money has been put back into mountainous, sparsely populated and distant Wales. This was particularly tragic when in the past we contributed so much wealth to Britain and received less back in terms of infrastructure than was merited. But that was some time ago and some of the blame must also be put on the party which has dominated in Wales for almost a century (since 1922) and represents the poorest areas of the country. Indeed, I often wonder whether these areas vote Labour because they are poor, or whether its the other way around, that those areas are poor because they vote Labour?

But before we can figure out where we need to go, we need to recognise where we are, and the sad truth is that we could not afford independence at the current time, anyone who doubts this claim should read the Holtham commission report which highlights Wales' horrible fiscal deficit. That is unless you were to argue for an independent Wales from a radical small c conservative point of view in which radically cutting the state and public services was part of the project. But seeing as no-one is then it seems that this is a moot point for now.

Of course there is a strong case for some sort of British union, which I would advocate, based on our largely shared history and institutions, and the fact that we share an island and language. It could include sovereign/independent states voluntarily forming some sort of confederation (would it be too much to suggest that one day even a united Ireland could join this confederation?). But the game for nationalists and unionists in Wales at the moment should be (paradoxically) the same: to make Wales a more prosperous and self confident country under devolution. For one side it is so that Wales at least could afford to leave the union in the future if it were in the national interest, for the others it is to show that being part of Britain is worth the sacrifice of complete autonomy.

In any case (and as this post is becoming a bit on the long side), as is often stated independence for independence sake is not (or at least should not be) the point. I would be happy with a wealthy, fair, free, confident and respected Wales whether it was as part of Britain or as an independent state. Lets all, at least, agree on that!


*As it is Christmas tomorrow tomorrow can I wish anyone who has read this blog post a Nadolig Llawen/Merry Christmas!

Mission Statement

The country which I love is failing.

It is an ancient country that has survived against the odds, and still retains a strong sense of itself. It is also a modern country that has recently embarked on a project of nation building and democratic self determination. It is both an engaging opportunity and a terrifying responsibility. It is a project I have followed for perhaps the last eight years, and it is largely the reason I have decided to write this blog.

The country is Wales (or Cymru in our old Welsh tongue), a small country to be found in the west of the island of Britain. It is a country with a rich history, which has in its own way shaped the history of the world (something I hope to explore a bit more in my future blog posts). But its history is largely ignored and under appreciated by many of its own people and many more of the people of the island which it shares. If the country is known by people outside of the island of Britain then it is largely as a strange mountainous land, a land of song, miners, castles and rugby players. It is also a relatively poor country that, we have been convinced, is a country with a radical and left wing disposition.

I want to write this blog to in some small way contribute to the current debates about the future of Wales, and the wider world. I am interested in a number of areas which this blog will aim to comment, including: history, philosophy, economics, science and above all politics, with a focus on Wales and Britain. I am an expert in none of these areas, but I believe in the democratic ideal of a citizenry which tries to educate itself and therefore offer challenging comment on the state of things. As Dewi Sant (Saint David) said "do the little things", it is a phrase I try to remind myself of as often as I can.

If anybody should choose to read this blog, then I hope to provoke thoughts and ideas above all else, and then to learn from any comments I receive and any debates I engage in. I have modified my ideas on a number of issues through past debates with friends and family, and by following thoughts through to their logical conclusion I have reached some uncomfortable truths. The idea of writing this blog is not to find easy answers, so I hope to submit myself to some more challenging debate.

Now to get back to the point of all of this.

Following Welsh politics can be a painful interest, but it is required work for Welsh patriots, of which I count myself one. This is the only political position (if it is one) I will say for now that I hold, for I am not currently a member of any political party and when in the past I have tried finding a position to describe my political views I have struggled to settle on any that satisfy me. One qualifying remark however, I also consider myself British, and as I consider patriotism a good thing (if not taken to extremes), then I am also a British patriot. I do not think they are mutually exclusive.

In the current circumstances though Wales needs patriots more than Britain, and therefore my focus in this blog will be on Wales. (I am also fascinated by the rest of the world, as all good patriots should be. So will also comment on things other than Welsh and British politics.)

In 1997 the people of Wales voted in favour of a National Assembly (very narrowly) and therefore a degree of political autonomy. The National Assembly began its work in 1999, and for all the years since then (14 years), the Welsh Government and Welsh politics has been dominated by one party, the Welsh Labour Party. It is my contention that they have failed Wales, and are continuing to fail us. In fact recent polls suggest that Labour will run Wales for the foreseeable future, suggesting a worrying prospect of a one party state. They have cemented their position through cleverly exploiting Welsh history and Welsh patriotism to make themselves the "party of Wales". They have made their brand of unreconstructed socialism look as though it is the "Welsh way". The truth is that Wales, like all other countries is a diverse place full of differing and legitimate ideas. The fact that most Welsh people don't really follow Welsh media (what there is of it anyway) suits the Labour party. As the Welsh public can ignore their failures and instead their anger can be vented on the evil Tories at Westminster who are far more likely to appear on their TV screens and in their newspapers.

However, my argument is that we have no one else to blame but our selves for this situation. Anyone who maintains that Wales is seriously oppressed by London/England/the Tories either has never seen real oppression or is spreading propaganda. The past is past and historic injustices should not fester in our hearts. There is fault, no doubt, that can be levelled at Westminster, but it is largely that Wales is ignored or not even considered. We are not going to change this situation just by complaining. We need firstly self confidence and to ditch any ideas of victim-hood, and secondly to assert our selves in Britain and the world in a positive way and by learning from others success (and that includes England).

I think truth is the most important thing we can strive for, and hopefully come somewhere near to through debate. So in this vain, the first thing to say is that I do believe that most politicians in Wales, from all parties, have good intentions. This may not be true (I can not make windows into peoples minds), but what is clear is that there is certainly a number of incompetent politicians in Wales. Evidence for this can be found in the state of education, health and the economy of Wales, after all a politicians primary job is to improve the lives of their constituents and their country. A lack of competition in certain constituencies is, I'm sure, part of the problem here.

We come out bottom on so many measures which compare us with other parts of the UK that something must be going wrong. In any other country the figures which we regularly hear about would be a national emergency, yet we have become so used to them we have become complacent. When the new PISA figures for Wales were released recently and showed that we were continuing to slip behind other countries, we heard Labour talking about new systems being put into place and a new emphasis on this and that, as if they had only just come to power, not been in charge of education for 14 years. It might be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The same is true of the Welsh economy, where we sit somewhere around 70-75% of the UK average in terms of GVA or GDP. But our government continue to hamper the growth of businesses in Wales through poor leadership and decisions, increased regulation or by focusing their resources on projects that in the long run wont create sustainable wealth creating jobs.

When people talk of real change and new thinking they generally don't really mean it, they go straight back to thinking what they previously thought, maybe with a slight tinkering about the edges. As Einstein famously said the definition of insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result". We need to change our political and ideological culture, learn from others who have succeeded and be prepared to change our minds. Wales cannot wait for much longer for us to go through this process.